INDEX

1730 ENTRIES · UPDATED 2026.10.01

1405 USD/CAD and USD/MXN Q4 2026 Outlook: Will the U.S. Dollar Dominate North America Again?The final stretch of 2026 is approaching, and North America's major currencies have begun to show a shift in the strength dynamics seen earlier in the year. New expectations of a more aggressive monetary policy stance, particularly in the United States, could be significantly res 2026.09.25 1406 Rates Spark: US 10yr continues to target 5.25%+The US 7yr auction tailed moderately. Not as horrendous as the previous day's 5yr auction, which tailed by a substantial 3bp. That auction was the last straw on Wednesday, prompting a follow-through rise in the 10yr yield to over 5.1%. Fast-forward to Thursday, and we're suddenly 2026.09.25 1407 US: PCE deflator update: A retroactive revision, not a disinflationary signalUpdates to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator methodology set to be released this month will be a one-time shift in measured inflation in the US—which we think will lead to a lower-than-expected reading—but that shouldn’t alter the underlying trend. The Bureau o 2026.09.25 1408 Japan FinMin Katayama: Deciding on specific monetary policy tools is up to BoJJapan finmin katayama: deciding on specific monetary policy tools is up to BoJ Katayama: BoJs recent rate reduction was intended to achieve inflation target 2026.09.25 1409 USD/JPY Q4 2026 Outlook: Hawkish Fed Pricing Clashes With Intervention RiskWhen thinking about how USD/JPY is likely to finish 2026, the outlook really comes down to one question: where does the Fed rates path go from here? Markets have already built in a very hawkish outlook for the funds rate. We’ve already seen the first rate increase in more than th 2026.09.25 1410 Do Productivity Booms Push Down Prices?Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have raised hopes that the U.S. economy may be entering a new era of rapid productivity growth. If AI delivers the productivity gains that many anticipate, firms may be able to produce more with the same amount of inputs, lowering p 2026.09.25 1411 Daiwa sees next BOJ rate hike in December as Ueda signals shift in policy phaseThe Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates again in December, followed by another hike in April 2027, according to Daiwa Securities economist Kenji Yamamoto. He argues that the central bank's September move marked a genuine turning point in how it runs policy. The BOJ li 2026.09.25 1412 Trump–Xi summit: Stability, not a breakthroughUS President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Washington on 24 September, just over four months after their talks in Beijing. They extended the US–China trade truce by two months, to 10 January 2027, and signalled that negotiations would continue. But the meet 2026.09.25 1413 German Consumer Climate: Significant SetbackConsumer Climate in Germany shows a significant setback in September The Consumer Climate indicator for October has fallen by 3.8 points to -30.6 points (previous month revised: -26.8 points). This decrease is attributable not only to an increased willingness to save but, above a 2026.09.25 1414 US dollar set for weekly gains as yields surge, Fed bets buildThe dollar was set for its first back-to-back weekly gains in more than three months on Friday, as surging Treasury yields and mounting bets on further Federal Reserve rate hikes kept the greenback near multi-month peaks. Dollar strength pushed the euro to a two-month low of $1. 2026.09.25 1415 Monetary developments in the euro area: August 2026Annual growth rate of broad monetary aggregate M3 stood at 3.5% in August 2026, after 3.4% in July 2026 Annual growth rate of narrower monetary aggregate M1, comprising currency in circulation and overnight deposits, decreased to 2.9% in August from 3.1% in July Annual growth rat 2026.09.25 1416 Iran proposes reopening Hormuz within seven days: MediaIran has submitted a proposal to the United States to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, its foreign minister told media outlets in New York. "If certain conditions are met, the strait will be open within seven days and talks will start," Abbas Aragh 2026.09.25